Fewer patients receive recommendations for pharmacotherapy in primary prevention using the 2018 atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator

Abstract

Shortly after the introduction of the 2013 original Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE), an overestimation of risk was suggested. As such, the updated 2018 PCE was developed to more accurately assess atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk in the population. Hence, this study aims to compare drug prescribing recommendations in a large, real-world patient population, depending on which PCE is used to estimate 10-year ASCVD risk. This retrospective cohort study identified 20,843 patients aged between 40 and 75 years with no previous ASCVD. The 10-year ASCVD risk score was assessed by using both PCE. Patients were assigned to the four risk categories according to the 2018 ACC/AHA guideline. The percentage of patients qualifying for guideline-recommended primary prevention with statins and/or anti-hypertensives were compared between both PCE. Risk reclassification occurred in 26.7% of patients overall (n = 5571), of which 98.1% (n = 5466) were assigned to lower risk categories with the updated PCE. Non-diabetic (14.0%) patients no longer met the threshold for recommending statins as primary prevention with the updated PCE. Likewise, 13.8% of patients with stage I hypertension no longer met the threshold for recommending antihypertensive drugs with the updated PCE. In conclusion, risk reclassification occurred among 26.7% of patients overall, mostly due to lower risk categories assigned by the updated PCE. Up to 14.0% of patients no longer met the threshold for recommending statin therapy and/or antihypertensive drugs by using the updated PCE. These findings suggest that using the updated PCE could translate into fewer patients receiving pharmacotherapy for ASCVD primary prevention.

Keywords: Atherosclerotic disease; Primary prevention; Risk assessment.