Objective: Delays in the diagnosis and treatment of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) are common. These delays contribute to impairments in quality of life and joint damage. This study aims to calculate the incidence rate of PsA over time and identify clinical features that may be used for PsA prediction in patients with psoriasis (PsO).
Methods: The study population for PsA incidence analysis included 1128 participants enrolled in the Utah Psoriasis Initiative between 2002 and 2014. Clinical evaluation and medical record review were performed to identify new cases of PsA after enrollment. To identify PsO features associated with PsA, the population was restricted to 627 participants who did not have PsA before PsO phenotyping and had been followed up for subsequent PsA diagnosis. We conducted Cox proportional hazard regressions to estimate the HR of PsA associated with PsO characteristics and other health-related features.
Results: PsA incidence rate increased for > 60 years following PsO onset (trend P < 0.0001). There was a significant association between PsA and induration severity in untreated lesions (P < 0.001, HR 1.46), history of fingernail involvement (P < 0.001, HR 2.38), pustular PsO (P < 0.001, HR 3.32), fingernail involvement at enrollment (P < 0.001, HR 2.04), and Koebner phenomenon (P < 0.001, HR 1.90). Multivariate analysis yielded a model that included a history of fingernail involvement (P < 0.001, HR 2.16) and untreated induration (P < 0.001, HR 1.41).
Conclusion: Risk of PsA increases steadily for > 60 years following PsO onset. Patient-reported history of PsO characteristics has greater predictive power than physician-measured features at enrollment visits. The characteristics identified in this study provide guidance for screening for PsA risk in patients with PsO.
Keywords: cohort studies; inflammation; longitudinal studies; psoriasis; psoriatic arthritis; survival analysis.
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