Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association of childhood progression of spherical equivalent (SE) with high myopia (HM) in teenagers in the Singapore Cohort of Risk factors for Myopia (SCORM).
Methods: We included 928 SCORM children followed over a mean follow-up of 6.9 ± 1.0 years from baseline (6-11 years old) until their teenage years (12-19 years old). Cycloplegic autorefraction and axial length (AL) measurements were performed yearly. The outcomes in teenagers were HM (SE ≤ -5 diopter [D)], AL ≥ 25 mm, SE and AL. Three-year SE and AL progression in childhood and baseline SE and AL with outcomes were evaluated using multivariable logistic or linear regression models, with predictive performance of risk factors assessed using the area under the curve (AUC).
Results: At the last visit, 9.8% of teenagers developed HM and 22.7% developed AL ≥ 25 mm. In multivariate regression analyses, every -0.3 D/year increase in 3-year SE progression and every 0.2 mm/year increase in 3-year AL progression were associated with a -1.14 D greater teenage SE and 0.52 mm greater teenage AL (P values < 0.001). The AUC (95% confidence interval [CI]) of a combination of 3-year SE progression and baseline SE for teenage HM was 0.97 (95% CI = 0.95 - 0.98). The AUC of 3-year AL progression and baseline AL for teenage AL ≥ 25 mm was 0.91 (95% CI = 0.89 - 0.94).
Conclusions: Three-year myopia progression in childhood combined with baseline SE or AL were good predictors of teenage HM. Clinicians may use this combination of factors to guide timing of interventions, potentially reducing the risk of HM later in life.