Parameter estimation from ICC curves

J Biol Dyn. 2021 Dec;15(1):195-212. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2021.1912419.

Abstract

Incidence vs. Cumulative Cases (ICC) curves are introduced and shown to provide a simple framework for parameter identification in the case of the most elementary epidemiological model, consisting of susceptible, infected, and removed compartments. This novel methodology is used to estimate the basic reproduction ratio of recent outbreaks, including those associated with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: Outbreak; compartmental models; parameter identification.

MeSH terms

  • Basic Reproduction Number / statistics & numerical data
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • COVID-19 / transmission
  • China / epidemiology
  • Computer Simulation
  • Disease Susceptibility
  • Gastroenteritis / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Mathematical Concepts
  • Models, Biological
  • Models, Statistical
  • Nonlinear Dynamics
  • Pandemics / statistics & numerical data*
  • Poisson Distribution
  • SARS-CoV-2*
  • Signal-To-Noise Ratio
  • Spain / epidemiology