Integrated methods and scenarios for assessment of sand dunes ecosystem services

Abstract

Anthropogenic and natural ecosystems in coastal dunes provide considerable benefits to human well-being. However, to date, we still lack a good understanding of how ecosystem services (ES) supply varies from young dunes (e.g., embryo and fore dunes) to mature dunes (e.g., brown and red dunes). This study proposed a novel modelling methodology by integrating an expert-based matrix, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN), a structural equation model, and a scenario development method. It aims at evaluating dune ecosystem services for the sustainable development of coastal areas. The model was tested using data collected from dunes in Vietnam. An expert-based matrix to assess the supply capacity of 18 ES in different types of dunes was generated with the participation of 21 interdisciplinary scientists. It was found that red dune ecosystems could supply the most regulation and cultural ecosystem services, while gray dunes provided the least amount. Results from a scenario analysis recommended that decision-making is able to optimize multiple ES by: (i) keeping embryo/fore dunes in their natural state instead of using them for mineral mining and urbanization; (ii) enlarging certified and protected forests areas in gray and yellow dunes; and (iii) optimizing cultural ES supply in red dunes.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network; Coastal dunes development; Ecosystem service matrix; Scenarios analysis; Structural equation modeling.