SARS-CoV-2 Spread Dynamics in Italy: The Calabria Experience

Abstract

Introduction: The first case of infection by SARS-CoV-2 (i.e., COVID-19) has been officially recorded by the Italian National Health Service on February 21st, 2020. Lombardy was the first Italian region to be affected by the pandemic. Subsequently, the entire Northern part of Italy recorded a high number of cases, while the South was hit following the migratory waves. On March 8th, the Italian Government has issued a decree that imposed a total lockdown, defining it as a state of isolation and restricting access in Lombardy and the other 14 provinces of Northern Italy.

Methods: We analyzed the virus trend in the period between February 24th and September 8th, 2020, focusing on Calabria, with regards to the following items: new positives, change of total positives, and total cases. Furthermore, we included other information, such as the incubation period, symptom resolution period, quarantine period.

Results: On March 27th, the epidemic curve spiked with 101 new positive cases validating the hypothesis that this abnormal event was related to the displacement of non-residents people, living in the Northern part of Italy, to the home regions in the South. The epidemic curve showed a decreasing trend in the period after lockdown, proving the effectiveness of this measure. From the end of the lockdown May 04th to September 8th, the registered trend was -94.51%. A negative growth rate indicates that the number of new positive cases is lower than the number of healed patients.

Conclusion: This study describes the effectiveness of the Italian Government policy, particularly the role of lockdown, for the containment of SARS-CoV-2 contagion in Calabria, a region with a low SARS-CoV-2 infection rate within the registered period.

Keywords: Covid-19; Epidemiology; Italy.; contagion; public health; trend.