The impact of preferential trade agreements on bilateral trade: A structural gravity model analysis

PLoS One. 2021 Mar 30;16(3):e0249118. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0249118. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Trade agreements are thought to raise trade integration, but existing preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are insufficient in measuring market access of products. This study develops a product-based coverage index of PTAs using the World Trade Organization (WTO) preferential trade agreements and calculates bilateral trade measures using the EORA multi-regional input-output (MRIO) tables covering 189 countries worldwide over the period 1990-2015; the structural gravity model is employed to test how PTAs affect bilateral trade. Our findings show that countries sharing a common PTA could boost the trade volume compared to those without PTAs, supporting the trade creation effect. However, the trade promotion effect of the product-based coverage index of PTAs is significant only if the member countries are low-and middle-income countries. Further, the wide range of product liberalization brought by PTAs can promote global production networks by stimulating the trade of intermediate goods. Our results are important for understanding the market access effect of PTAs with the increasing development of trade integration and global value chains (GVCs).

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Commerce*
  • International Cooperation*
  • Investments
  • Models, Theoretical*

Grants and funding

This work was supported by the National Science Foundation of China (No. 71903157 and 72003152), Ministry of Education Project of Humanities and Social Sciences (No. 19XJC790013). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.