Predicting amyloid risk by machine learning algorithms based on the A4 screen data: Application to the Japanese Trial-Ready Cohort study

Abstract

Background: Selecting cognitively normal elderly individuals with higher risk of brain amyloid deposition is critical to the success of prevention trials for Alzheimer's disease (AD).

Methods: Based on the Anti-Amyloid Treatment in Asymptomatic Alzheimer's Disease study data, we built machine-learning models and applied them to our ongoing Japanese Trial-Ready Cohort (J-TRC) webstudy participants registered within the first 9 months (n = 3081) of launch to predict standard uptake value ratio (SUVr) of amyloid positron emission tomography.

Results: Age, family history, online Cognitive Function Instrument and CogState scores were important predictors. In a subgroup of J-TRC webstudy participants with known amyloid status (n = 37), the predicted SUVr corresponded well with the self-reported amyloid test results (area under the curve = 0.806 [0.619-0.992]).

Discussion: Our algorithms may be usable for automatic prioritization of candidate participants with higher amyloid risks to be preferentially recruited from the J-TRC webstudy to in-person study, maximizing efficiency for the identification of preclinical AD participants.

Keywords: J‐TRC; Trial‐Ready Cohort; machine learning; online recruitment; preclinical Alzheimer's disease; webstudy.