Background: Relatively few COVID-19 cases and deaths have been reported through much of sub-Saharan Africa, including South Sudan, although the extent of SARS-CoV-2 spread remains unclear due to weak surveillance systems and few population-representative serosurveys.
Methods: We conducted a representative household-based cross-sectional serosurvey in Juba, South Sudan. We quantified IgG antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein receptor-binding domain and estimated seroprevalence using a Bayesian regression model accounting for test performance.
Results: We recruited 2,214 participants from August 10 to September 11, 2020 and 22.3% had anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG titers above levels in pre-pandemic samples. After accounting for waning antibody levels, age, and sex, we estimated that 38.5% (32.1 - 46.8) of the population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2. For each RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 case, 104 (87-126) infections were unreported. Background antibody reactivity was higher in pre-pandemic samples from Juba compared to Boston, where the serological test was validated. The estimated proportion of the population infected ranged from 30.1% to 60.6% depending on assumptions about test performance and prevalence of clinically severe infections.
Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 has spread extensively within Juba. Validation of serological tests in sub-Saharan African populations is critical to improve our ability to use serosurveillance to understand and mitigate transmission.