Global dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic model with recessive infection and isolation

Math Biosci Eng. 2021 Feb 22;18(2):1833-1844. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2021095.

Abstract

In this paper, we present an SEIIaHR epidemic model to study the influence of recessive infection and isolation in the spread of COVID-19. We first prove that the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable with condition R0<1 and the positive equilibrium is uniformly persistent when the condition R0>1. By using the COVID-19 data in India, we then give numerical simulations to illustrate our results and carry out some sensitivity analysis. We know that asymptomatic infections will affect the spread of the disease when the quarantine rate is within the range of [0.3519, 0.5411]. Furthermore, isolating people with symptoms is important to control and eliminate the disease.

Keywords: COVID-19 epidemic model; asymptotically stable; basic reproduction number; isolation; recessive infection.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Asymptomatic Infections / epidemiology
  • Basic Reproduction Number / statistics & numerical data
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • COVID-19 / prevention & control
  • COVID-19 / transmission
  • Computer Simulation
  • Epidemics* / prevention & control
  • Epidemics* / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • India / epidemiology
  • Markov Chains
  • Mathematical Concepts
  • Models, Biological*
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Pandemics / prevention & control
  • Pandemics / statistics & numerical data
  • Quarantine / statistics & numerical data
  • SARS-CoV-2*