Global Dynamics of a Reaction-Diffusion Model of Zika Virus Transmission with Seasonality

Bull Math Biol. 2021 Mar 20;83(5):43. doi: 10.1007/s11538-021-00879-3.

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a periodic reaction-diffusion model of Zika virus with seasonal and spatial heterogeneous structure in host and vector population. We introduce the basic reproduction ratio [Formula: see text] for this model and show that the disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text], while the system admits a globally asymptotically stable positive periodic solution if [Formula: see text]. Numerically, we study the Zika transmission in Rio de Janeiro Municipality, Brazil, and investigate the effects of some model parameters on [Formula: see text]. We find that the neglect of seasonality underestimates the value of [Formula: see text] and the maximum carrying capacity affects the spread of Zika virus.

Keywords: Basic reproduction ratio; Global stability; Reaction–diffusion model; Seasonality; Zika virus.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Brazil
  • Humans
  • Models, Biological*
  • Seasons
  • Zika Virus
  • Zika Virus Infection* / epidemiology
  • Zika Virus Infection* / transmission