Fractional stochastic models for COVID-19: Case study of Egypt

Othman A M Omar; Reda A Elbarkouky; Hamdy M Ahmed

doi:10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104018

Fractional stochastic models for COVID-19: Case study of Egypt

Results Phys. 2021 Apr:23:104018. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104018. Epub 2021 Mar 12.

Authors

Othman A M Omar¹, Reda A Elbarkouky¹, Hamdy M Ahmed²

Affiliations

¹ Physics and Engineering Mathematics Department, Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11517, Egypt.
² Higher Institute of Engineering, El-Shorouk Academy, P.O. 3 El-Shorouk City, Cairo, Egypt.

Abstract

In this paper, COVID-19 dynamics are modelled with three mathematical dynamic models, fractional order modified SEIRF model, stochastic modified SEIRF model, and fractional stochastic modified SEIRF model, to characterize and predict virus behavior. By using Euler method and Euler-Murayama method, the numerical solutions for the considered models are obtained. The considered models are applied to the case study of Egypt to forecast COVID-19 behavior for the second virus wave which is assumed to be started on 15 November 2020. Finally, comparisons between actual and predicted daily infections are presented.

Keywords: COVID-19; Euler-Murayama method; Fractional dynamic models; Stochastic dynamic models.