Estimating US Background Ozone Using Data Fusion

Environ Sci Technol. 2021 Apr 20;55(8):4504-4512. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.0c08625. Epub 2021 Mar 16.

Abstract

US background (US-B) ozone (O3) is the O3 that would be present in the absence of US anthropogenic (US-A) emissions. US-B O3 varies by location and season and can make up a large, sometimes dominant, portion of total O3. Typically, US-B O3 is quantified using a chemical transport model (CTM) though results are uncertain due to potential errors in model process descriptions and inputs, and there are significant differences in various model estimates of US-B O3. We develop and apply a method to fuse observed O3 with US-B O3 simulated by a regional CTM (CMAQ). We apportion the model bias as a function of space and time to US-B and US-A O3. Trends in O3 bias are explored across different simulation years and varying model scales. We found that the CTM US-B O3 estimate was typically biased low in spring and high in fall across years (2016-2017) and model scales. US-A O3 was biased high on average, with bias increasing for coarser resolution simulations. With the application of our data fusion bias adjustment method, we estimate a 28% improvement in the agreement of adjusted US-B O3. Across the four estimates, we found annual mean CTM-simulated US-B O3 ranging from 30 to 37 ppb with the spring mean ranging from 32 to 39 ppb. After applying the bias adjustment, we found annual mean US-B O3 ranging from 32 to 33 ppb with the spring mean ranging from 37 to 39 ppb.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Air Pollutants* / analysis
  • Computer Simulation
  • Models, Chemical
  • Ozone* / analysis
  • Seasons

Substances

  • Air Pollutants
  • Ozone