Changing trends of disease burden of gastric cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions: Findings from Global Burden of Disease Study

Tongchao Zhang; Hui Chen; Xiaolin Yin; Qiufeng He; Jinyu Man; Xiaorong Yang; Ming Lu

doi:10.21147/j.issn.1000-9604.2021.01.02

Changing trends of disease burden of gastric cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions: Findings from Global Burden of Disease Study

Chin J Cancer Res. 2021 Feb 28;33(1):11-26. doi: 10.21147/j.issn.1000-9604.2021.01.02.

Authors

Tongchao Zhang¹, Hui Chen^{2

3}, Xiaolin Yin¹, Qiufeng He¹, Jinyu Man¹, Xiaorong Yang^{2

3}, Ming Lu^{1

2

3}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China.
² Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China.
³ Clinical Research Center of Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China.

PMID: 33707924
PMCID: PMC7941685
DOI: 10.21147/j.issn.1000-9604.2021.01.02

Abstract

Objective: China is one of the countries with the heaviest burden of gastric cancer (GC) in the world. Understanding the epidemiological trends and patterns of GC in China can contribute to formulating effective prevention strategies.

Methods: The data on incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of GC in China from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (2019). The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to evaluate the temporal trends of disease burden of GC, and the package Nordpred in the R program was used to perform an age-period-cohort analysis to predict the numbers and rates of incidence and mortality in the next 25 years.

Results: The number of incident cases of GC increased from 317.34 thousand in 1990 to 612.82 thousand in 2019, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of GC decreased from 37.56 per 100,000 in 1990 to 30.64 per 100,000 in 2019, with an EAPC of -0.41 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): -0.77, -0.06]. Pronounced temporal trends in mortality and DALYs of GC were observed. In the next 25 years, the numbers of new GC cases and deaths are expected to increase to 738.79 thousand and 454.80 thousand, respectively, while the rates of incidence and deaths should steadily decrease. The deaths and DALYs attributable to smoking were different for males and females.

Conclusions: In China, despite the fact that the rates of GC have decreased during the past three decades, the numbers of new GC cases and deaths increased, and will continue to increase in the next 25 years. Additional strategies are needed to reduce the burden of GC, such as screening and early detection, novel treatments, and the prevention of risk factors.

Keywords: Gastric cancer; disease burden; prediction; risk factor; temporal trend.