Spatiotemporal clustering and meteorological factors affected scarlet fever incidence in mainland China from 2004 to 2017

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the spatiotemporal dynamic distribution and detect the related meteorological factors of scarlet fever from an ecological perspective, which could provide scientific information for effective prevention and control of this disease.

Methods: The data on scarlet fever cases in mainland China were downloaded from the Data Center of the China Public Health Science, while monthly meteorological data were extracted from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics. Global Moran's I, local Getis-Ord G_i^⁎ hotspot statistics, and Kulldorff's retrospective space-time scan statistical analysis were used to detect the spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of scarlet fever across all settings. A spatial panel data model was conducted to estimate the impact of meteorological factors on scarlet fever incidence.

Results: Scarlet fever in China had obvious spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal clustering, high-incidence spatial clusters were located mainly in the north and northeast of China. Nine spatiotemporal clusters were identified. A spatial lag fixed effects panel data model was the best fit for regression analysis. After adjusting for spatial individual effects and spatial autocorrelation (ρ = 0.5623), scarlet fever incidence was positively associated with a one-month lag of average temperature, precipitation, and total sunshine hours (all P-values < 0.05). Each 10 °C, 2 cm, and 10 h increase in temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours, respectively, was associated with a 6.41% increment and 1.04% and 1.41% decrement in scarlet fever incidence, respectively.

Conclusion: The incidence of scarlet fever in China showed an upward trend in recent years. It had obvious spatiotemporal clustering, with the high-risk areas mainly concentrated in the north and northeast of China. Areas with high temperature and with low precipitation and sunshine hours tended to have a higher scarlet fever incidence, and we should pay more attention to prevention and control in these places.

Keywords: Meteorological factors; Scarlet fever; Space-time clustering; Spatial autocorrelation analysis; Spatial panel data model.