The Mexican influenza vaccination program does not include a recommendation for people aged 50-59 years without risk factors for influenza complications, and there are limited data regarding the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating this population. To explore the clinical and economic effects of including this population in the vaccination schedule, we performed a cross-sectional epidemiological study using records (2009-2018) from Mexico's Influenza Surveillance System (SISVEFLU), death records (2010-2015) from the National Mortality Epidemiological and Statistical System, and discharge and hospitalization records (2010-2015) from the Automated Hospital Discharge System databases. A 1-year decision-analytic model was used to assess cost-effectiveness through a decision-tree based on data from SISVEFLU. The primary outcome was influenza cases avoided; with associated influenza-related events as secondary outcomes. Including the population aged 50-59 years without risk factors in Mexico's influenza immunization program would have resulted in 199,500 fewer cases; 67,008 fewer outpatient consultations; 33,024 fewer emergency room consultations; 33,091 fewer hospitalizations; 12 fewer deaths. These reductions equate to a substantial public health benefit as well as an economic benefit; yielding net savings of 49.8 million US dollars over a typical influenza season. Expansion of the current Mexican vaccination schedule to include these people would be a cost-saving and dominant strategy.
Keywords: Mexico; adult-aged population; burden of disease; cost effectiveness; influenza; middle-income countries; vaccination.