Global Population Aging, National Development Level, and Vulnerability to the Pandemic

Risk Manag Healthc Policy. 2021 Feb 18:14:705-717. doi: 10.2147/RMHP.S292440. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Purpose: This study examined the roles of population aging and national development level in affecting different phases of novel coronavirus disease development with a view to advancing preparedness and corresponding policy.

Methods: Regression analysis was conducted using multisource data from the World Bank and Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Dashboard.

Results: Population aging is positively associated with confirmed cases of day-10, day-20, and day-30. The positive association between population aging and death does not emerge until day-20. Countries with a higher proportion of older males face higher risks of death.. Countries with a higher proportion of males aged 70-74 years are at the highest risk of confirmed cases. National development level is not associated with confirmed cases, but developing countries face significantly higher risks of death of day-10 and day-20.

Conclusion: Prevention and control policies for older adults and underdeveloped areas and sex differences need to be studied.

Keywords: national development level; pandemic; policy preparedness; population aging; sex difference.

Grants and funding

We appreciate the support from the National Social Science Fund of China (20CTY017).