Background: The US physician workforce does not represent the racial or ethnic diversity of the population it serves.
Objectives: To assess whether the proportion of US physician trainees of Black race and Hispanic ethnicity has changed over time and then provide a conceptual projection of future trends.
Design: Cross-sectional, retrospective, analysis based on 11 years of publicly available data paired with recent US census population estimates.
Participants: A total of 86,303 (2007-2008) to 103,539 (2017-2018) resident physicians in the 20 largest US Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education resident specialties.
Main measures: Changes in proportion of physician trainees of Black race and Hispanic ethnicity per academic year. Projected number of years it will then take, for specialties with positive changes, to reach proportions of Black race and Hispanic ethnicity comparable to that of the US population.
Key results: Among the 20 largest specialty training programs, Radiology was the only specialty with a statistically significant increase in the proportion of Black trainees, but it could take Radiology 77 years to reach levels of Black representation comparable to that of the US population. Obstetrics/Gynecology, Emergency Medicine, Internal Medicine/Pediatrics, and Orthopedic Surgery demonstrated a statistically significant increase in the proportion of Hispanic trainees, but it could take these specialties 35, 54, 61, and 93 years respectively to achieve Hispanic representation comparable to that of the US population.
Conclusions: Among US residents in the 20 largest specialties, no specialty represented either the Black or Hispanic populations in proportions comparable to the overall US population. Only a small number of specialties demonstrated statistically significant increases. This conceptual projection suggests that current efforts to promote diversity are insufficient.
Keywords: Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education; physician workforce; workforce diversity.