A dynamic optimal control model for COVID-19 and cholera co-infection in Yemen

Ibrahim M Hezam; Abdelaziz Foul; Adel Alrasheedi

doi:10.1186/s13662-021-03271-6

A dynamic optimal control model for COVID-19 and cholera co-infection in Yemen

Adv Differ Equ. 2021;2021(1):108. doi: 10.1186/s13662-021-03271-6. Epub 2021 Feb 15.

Authors

Ibrahim M Hezam^{1

2}, Abdelaziz Foul¹, Adel Alrasheedi¹

Affiliations

¹ Statistics and Operations Research Department, College of Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
² Department of Mathematics, Ibb University, Ibb, Yemen.

Abstract

In this work, we propose a new dynamic mathematical model framework governed by a system of differential equations that integrates both COVID-19 and cholera outbreaks. The estimations of the model parameters are based on the outbreaks of COVID-19 and cholera in Yemen from January 1, 2020 to May 30, 2020. Moreover, we present an optimal control model for minimizing both the number of infected people and the cost associated with each control. Four preventive measures are to be taken to control the outbreaks: social distancing, lockdown, the number of tests, and the number of chlorine water tablets (CWTs). Under the current conditions and resources available in Yemen, various policies are simulated to evaluate the optimal policy. The results obtained confirm that the policy of providing resources for the distribution of CWTs, providing sufficient resources for testing with an average social distancing, and quarantining of infected individuals has significant effects on flattening the epidemic curves.

Keywords: COVID-19; Cholera; Co-infection; Optimal control; Yemen.