Importance: Predicting the extent of corneal edema resolution after Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty (DMEK) may help in preoperative decision-making by identifying patients who may benefit from restoring endothelial function.
Objective: To develop and validate a predictive model for edema resolution after DMEK using Scheimpflug tomographic imaging.
Design, setting, and participants: Two prospective studies recruited participants with advanced Fuchs dystrophy at a university-based tertiary referral center between July 1, 2017, and August 31, 2019. Analyses were designed in November 2019 and completed on June 30, 2020. Development of a predictive model using linear least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was conducted in a derivation cohort (100 eyes). Overall performance, discrimination, and calibration were tested in the separate validation cohort (32 eyes).
Exposures: Preoperative Scheimpflug parameters and patient-reported visual disability were considered as potential predictors of edema resolution: (1) tomographic features (irregularity of lines of equal corneal thickness, displacement of the thinnest point of corneal thickness from the inferior-temporal quadrant, and absolute amount of focal posterior corneal depression), (2) standardized anterior and posterior corneal backscatter, (3) preoperative central corneal thickness, and (4) Fuchs dystrophy-specific visual disability.
Main outcomes and measures: Decrease in central corneal thickness after DMEK indicative of edema resolution.
Results: Of the 88 patients included in the analysis, 54 were women (61%); median age was 68 years (interquartile range [IQR], 59-76 years). A median of 13 months after DMEK (IQR, 9-16 months), median corneal thickness was 77 μm lower (IQR, 51-94 μm) in the derivation cohort and 75 μm lower in the validation cohort (IQR, 54-96 μm) than before surgery. Per 10-μm edema resolution, eyes gained 0.66 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study letters (95% CI, 0.09-1.23) in best-corrected visual acuity. Three tomographic features were present in 68 of 100 eyes (68%) in the derivation cohort and in 18 of 32 eyes (56%) in the validation cohort before DMEK and in only 1 of 132 eyes (1%) after DMEK. To predict edema resolution after DMEK based on preoperative assessment, 5 variables were selected by the statistical learning algorithm: nonparallel isopachs, focal posterior depression, anterior and posterior corneal backscatter, and central corneal thickness. In the separate validation cohort, the model showed high overall performance, discrimination, and calibration.
Conclusions and relevance: These post hoc analyses of prospective cohorts support a model for use in the prediction of edema resolution after DMEK using Scheimpflug measurement to identify patients benefitting most from DMEK.