COVID-19, the Yule-Simpson paradox and research evaluation

Zhiqi Wang; Ronald Rousseau

doi:10.1007/s11192-020-03830-w

COVID-19, the Yule-Simpson paradox and research evaluation

Scientometrics. 2021;126(4):3501-3511. doi: 10.1007/s11192-020-03830-w. Epub 2021 Feb 7.

Authors

Zhiqi Wang¹, Ronald Rousseau^{2

3}

Affiliations

¹ WISE Lab, Institute of Science of Science and S&T Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, People's Republic of China.
² Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerpen, Belgium.
³ Dept. MSI, Centre for R&D Monitoring (ECOOM), KU Leuven, 3000, Leuven, Belgium.

Abstract

The Yule-Simpson paradox refers to the fact that outcomes of comparisons between groups are reversed when groups are combined. Using Essential Sciences Indicators, a part of InCites (Clarivate), data for countries, it is shown that although the Yule-Simpson phenomenon in citation analysis and research evaluation is not common, it isn't extremely rare either. The Yule-Simpson paradox is a phenomenon one should be aware of, otherwise one may encounter unforeseen surprises in scientometric studies.

Keywords: Relative citations; Scientometric comparisons between countries; Yule-Simpson paradox.