The Zoltar forecast archive, a tool to standardize and store interdisciplinary prediction research

Sci Data. 2021 Feb 11;8(1):59. doi: 10.1038/s41597-021-00839-5.

Abstract

Forecasting has emerged as an important component of informed, data-driven decision-making in a wide array of fields. We introduce a new data model for probabilistic predictions that encompasses a wide range of forecasting settings. This framework clearly defines the constituent parts of a probabilistic forecast and proposes one approach for representing these data elements. The data model is implemented in Zoltar, a new software application that stores forecasts using the data model and provides standardized API access to the data. In one real-time case study, an instance of the Zoltar web application was used to store, provide access to, and evaluate real-time forecast data on the order of 108 rows, provided by over 40 international research teams from academia and industry making forecasts of the COVID-19 outbreak in the US. Tools and data infrastructure for probabilistic forecasts, such as those introduced here, will play an increasingly important role in ensuring that future forecasting research adheres to a strict set of rigorous and reproducible standards.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19 / epidemiology
  • Datasets as Topic
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Forecasting / methods*
  • Humans
  • Reference Standards
  • Software*