The probability of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy given postictal prone position

Abstract

Sudden Unexpected Death in Epilepsy (SUDEP) is strongly linked to prone position in the immediate aftermath of a generalized tonic-clonic seizure (GTCS). The risk of SUDEP after a GTCS resulting in prone position has not yet been estimated. We calculated the probability of SUDEP given prone position after a GTCS using Bayesian analysis with inputs obtained from known risk of SUDEP and probability of prone position after a GTCS. The risk for SUDEP given the prone position is estimated to be 0.41% (95% Credible Interval 0.13-0.69%). The relative risk of SUDEP in prone vs. non-prone position following a GTCS is estimated to be 63 (95% Credible Interval 30-96). Sudden Unexpected Death in Epilepsy might be prevented by repositioning the patient after a seizure to avoid the prone position.

Keywords: Epilepsy; Incidence; Prone position; Sudden Unexpected Death in Epilepsy, SUDEP.