SARS-CoV-2 and Rohingya Refugee Camp, Bangladesh: Uncertainty and How the Government Took Over the Situation

Md Kamrujjaman; Md Shahriar Mahmud; Shakil Ahmed; Md Omar Qayum; Mohammad Morshad Alam; Md Nazmul Hassan; Md Rafiul Islam; Kaniz Fatema Nipa; Ummugul Bulut

doi:10.3390/biology10020124

SARS-CoV-2 and Rohingya Refugee Camp, Bangladesh: Uncertainty and How the Government Took Over the Situation

Biology (Basel). 2021 Feb 5;10(2):124. doi: 10.3390/biology10020124.

Authors

Md Kamrujjaman^{1

2}, Md Shahriar Mahmud³, Shakil Ahmed⁴, Md Omar Qayum⁵, Mohammad Morshad Alam⁶, Md Nazmul Hassan⁷, Md Rafiul Islam⁸, Kaniz Fatema Nipa⁹, Ummugul Bulut¹⁰

Affiliations

¹ Department of Mathematics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh.
² Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada.
³ Department of Computer Science & Engineering, State University of Bangladesh, Dhaka 1205, Bangladesh.
⁴ Department of Public Health, North South University, Dhaka 1229, Bangladesh.
⁵ Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh.
⁶ Health, Nutrition and Population Global Practice, The World Bank, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh.
⁷ Department of Mathematics, Schreiner University, Kerrville, TX 78028, USA.
⁸ Department of Mathematics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA.
⁹ Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA.
¹⁰ Department of Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences, Texas A&M University San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78224, USA.

Abstract

Background: Bangladesh hosts more than 800,000 Rohingya refugees from Myanmar. The low health immunity, lifestyle, access to good healthcare services, and social-security cause this population to be at risk of far more direct effects of COVID-19 than the host population. Therefore, evidence-based forecasting of the COVID-19 burden is vital in this regard. In this study, we aimed to forecast the COVID-19 obligation among the Rohingya refugees of Bangladesh to keep up with the disease outbreak's pace, health needs, and disaster preparedness. Methodology and Findings: To estimate the possible consequences of COVID-19 in the Rohingya camps of Bangladesh, we used a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) transmission model. All of the values of different parameters used in this model were from the Bangladesh Government's database and the relevant emerging literature. We addressed two different scenarios, i.e., the best-fitting model and the good-fitting model with unique consequences of COVID-19. Our best fitting model suggests that there will be reasonable control over the transmission of the COVID-19 disease. At the end of December 2020, there will be only 169 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Rohingya refugee camps. The average basic reproduction number (R0) has been estimated to be 0.7563. Conclusions: Our analysis suggests that, due to the extensive precautions from the Bangladesh government and other humanitarian organizations, the coronavirus disease will be under control if the maintenance continues like this. However, detailed and pragmatic preparedness should be adopted for the worst scenario.

Keywords: 92D25; 92D30; 97M60; 97M99; AMS Subject Classication 2010; COVID-19; Rohingya Refugee camp; basic reproduction number; mathematical model; numerical results.