Inferring Distributional Shifts of Asian Giant Hornet Vespa mandarinia Smith in Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

Vespa mandarinia Smith is a species with native distribution in Asia and with the potential distribution of invasion in the Americas. We use ecological niche models to be able to predict their potential distribution in Asia and their projection in the Americas using KUENM in R in climate change scenarios. The ecological niche of V. mandarinia is potentially distributed in Asia and is expected with invasion potential in the east coast of USA, part of the México, Central America, and South America, while for 2050 it is projected with dispersion in North and Central of USA and rest of the Americas. The realized niche expanded in the Americas. Ecological niche modeling helps us infer the distribution of this species in Asia and its possible establishment of invasion in the USA, México, Central America, and South America.

Keywords: Ecological niche; Invasive species; KUENM; MaxEnt; Pest risk assessment; RCP.