Side effect of a 6 p.m curfew for preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2: A modeling study from Toulouse, France

Chloé Dimeglio; Marcel Miedougé; Jean-Michel Loubes; Jean-Michel Mansuy; Jacques Izopet

doi:10.1016/j.jinf.2021.01.021

Side effect of a 6 p.m curfew for preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2: A modeling study from Toulouse, France

J Infect. 2021 May;82(5):186-230. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2021.01.021. Epub 2021 Jan 31.

Authors

Chloé Dimeglio¹, Marcel Miedougé², Jean-Michel Loubes³, Jean-Michel Mansuy², Jacques Izopet⁴

Affiliations

¹ UMR Inserm, U1043; UMR CNRS, U5282, Centre de Physiopathologie de Toulouse Purpan (CPTP), Toulouse 31300, France; CHU Toulouse, Hôpital Purpan, Virology Laboratory, 31300 France. Electronic address: dimeglio.c@chu-toulouse.fr.
² CHU Toulouse, Hôpital Purpan, Virology Laboratory, 31300 France.
³ Université de Toulouse, Institut de Mathématiques de Toulouse, Toulouse 31400, France.
⁴ UMR Inserm, U1043; UMR CNRS, U5282, Centre de Physiopathologie de Toulouse Purpan (CPTP), Toulouse 31300, France; CHU Toulouse, Hôpital Purpan, Virology Laboratory, 31300 France.

Abstract

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the resulting disease Covid-19 has killed over 2 million people as of January 22, 2021. We have designed a model and used it to quantify the effect of a 6 p.m curfew on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Toulouse, France. The data show that this measure can lead to the opposite effect from that intended due to larger groups of people on the authorized hours.

Keywords: Protective measures; Public health; SARS-COV-2; Statistical model.

Publication types

Letter

MeSH terms

COVID-19*
Drug-Related Side Effects and Adverse Reactions*
Epidemics*
France / epidemiology
Humans
SARS-CoV-2