Preventing epidemics by wearing masks: An application to COVID-19

João A M Gondim

doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110599

Preventing epidemics by wearing masks: An application to COVID-19

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2021 Feb:143:110599. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110599. Epub 2020 Dec 18.

Author

João A M Gondim¹

Affiliation

¹ Unidade Acadêmica do Cabo de Santo Agostinho, Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Cabo de Santo Agostinho, PE, Brazil.

Abstract

The goal of this work is to consider widespread use of face masks as a non-pharmaceutical control strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic. A SEIR model that divides the population into individuals that wear masks and those that do not is considered. After calculating the basic reproductive number by a next generation approach, a criterion for determining when an epidemic can be prevented by the use of masks only and the critical percentage of mask users for disease prevention in the population are derived. The results are then applied to real world data from the United States, Brazil and Italy.

Keywords: COVID-19; Epidemics; Face masks; Non-pharmaceutical control strategies; SEIR model.