As a region known for its high species richness, southwest China plays an important role in preserving global biodiversity and ensuring ecological security in the Yangtze, Mekong, and Salween river basins. However, relatively few studies focus on the response of tree species richness to climate change in this part of China. This study determined the main tree species in southwest China using the Vegetation Map of China and the Flora of China. From simulations of 1970 to 2000 and three forecasts of future benign, moderate, and extreme climate warming anticipated during 2061 to 2080, this study used a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate main tree species richness in southwest China. Regions with a peak species richness at intermediate elevations were typically dominated by complex mountainous terrain, such as in the Hengduan Mountains. Likewise, regions with the smallest richness were low-elevation areas, including the Sichuan Basin, and the high-elevation Sichuan-Tibet region. Annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature seasonality, and elevation were the most critical factors in estimating tree species richness in southwest China. During future 2061 to 2080 climate scenarios, tree species tended to migrate towards higher elevations as mean temperatures increased. For climate change scenarios RCP2.6-2070 (benign) and RCP4.5-2070 (moderate), the main tree species richness in the study area changed little. During the RCP8.5-2070 extreme scenario, tree species richness decreased. This study provides useful guidance to plan and implement measures to conserve biodiversity.
Keywords: Biodiversity conservation; Climate change; Environmental variables; Habitat evaluation; Maximum entropy model; Tree species richness.