The impacts of COVID-19 vaccine timing, number of doses, and risk prioritization on mortality in the US

Xutong Wang; Zhanwei Du; Kaitlyn E Johnson; Remy F Pasco; Spencer J Fox; Michael Lachmann; Jason S McLellan; Lauren Ancel Meyers

doi:10.1101/2021.01.18.21250071

The impacts of COVID-19 vaccine timing, number of doses, and risk prioritization on mortality in the US

medRxiv [Preprint]. 2021 Feb 18:2021.01.18.21250071. doi: 10.1101/2021.01.18.21250071.

Authors

Xutong Wang¹, Zhanwei Du^{1

2

3}, Kaitlyn E Johnson¹, Remy F Pasco¹, Spencer J Fox¹, Michael Lachmann⁴, Jason S McLellan⁵, Lauren Ancel Meyers^{1

4}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, United States of America.
² WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
³ Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
⁴ Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, United States of America.
⁵ Department of Molecular Biosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, United States of America.

Abstract

As COVID-19 vaccination begins worldwide, policymakers face critical trade-offs. Using a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission, we find that timing of the rollout is expected to have a substantially greater impact on mortality than risk-based prioritization and uptake and that prioritizing first doses over second doses may be life saving.

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Preprint

Abstract

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