This study aimed at quantifying expert opinions on the risk factors involved in Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection in dairy cattle herds. For this purpose, potential risk factors associated with the introduction of MAP into dairies were chosen based on a literature review and discussions with researchers and veterinarians. For each factor, a decision tree was developed, and key questions were included in each. Answers to these key questions led to different events within each decision tree. An expert opinion workshop was organized (following the recommendations of the OIE), and ordinal values ranging from 0 to 9 (i.e., a null to very high likelihood of infection) were assigned to each event. The potential risk factors were also incorporated into a structured questionnaire that was responded to by 93 farms where the sanitary status against MAP was known. Thereby, based on the values given by the experts and the information collected in the questionnaires, each farm was assigned a score based on their MAP entry risk. From these scores (contrast variable) and using a ROC curve, the cut-off that best discriminated MAP-positive and -negative farms was estimated. The most important risk factors for the introduction of MAP, according to expert opinions, involved purchase and grazing practices related to animals under six months of age. The scores obtained for each farm, also based on the expert opinions, allowed MAP positive/MAP negative farms to be discriminated with 68.8% sensitivity and 68.7% specificity. These data should be useful for focusing future training initiatives and improving risk-reduction strategies in the dairy industry.
Keywords: Johne’s disease; Spain; dairy cattle; expert opinion; risk analysis.