Alternating quarantine for sustainable epidemic mitigation

Nat Commun. 2021 Jan 11;12(1):220. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-20324-8.

Abstract

Absent pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing, lock-downs and mobility restrictions remain our prime response in the face of epidemic outbreaks. To ease their potentially devastating socioeconomic consequences, we propose here an alternating quarantine strategy: at every instance, half of the population remains under lockdown while the other half continues to be active - maintaining a routine of weekly succession between activity and quarantine. This regime minimizes infectious interactions, as it allows only half of the population to interact for just half of the time. As a result it provides a dramatic reduction in transmission, comparable to that achieved by a population-wide lockdown, despite sustaining socioeconomic continuity at ~50% capacity. The weekly alternations also help address the specific challenge of COVID-19, as their periodicity synchronizes with the natural SARS-CoV-2 disease time-scales, allowing to effectively isolate the majority of infected individuals precisely at the time of their peak infection.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19 / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / prevention & control*
  • COVID-19 / transmission
  • Communicable Disease Control / methods
  • Disease Transmission, Infectious / prevention & control
  • Humans
  • Pandemics / prevention & control*
  • Physical Distancing
  • Quarantine*
  • SARS-CoV-2*
  • Social Networking
  • Socioeconomic Factors