Biofuel feedstock production in the United States (US) is an emergent environmental nutrient management issue, whose exploration can benefit from a multi-scale and multimedia systems modeling approach that explicitly addresses diverging stakeholder interests. In the present analysis, energy and agricultural markets models and a hybrid process-based agricultural production model are integrated to explore the potential environmental consequences of increased biofuel production from maize grain and stover feedstocks. Yield and cropland reallocation projections are simulated for 20 agricultural crops at a 12km grid resolution across the continental United States. Our results are presented across multiple, spatially expanding domains, and our results for the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) are compared to previous studies. Our analysis highlights the critical continuing role of agricultural and crop science to provide physically plausible estimates and physical process drivers of yield increases, and suggests that while the UMRB is the target of the greatest agricultural changes under our scenarios, its response does not necessarily reflect the interests of a broad stakeholder community.
Keywords: CARD; Cropland reallocation; EPIC; MARKAL; Nitrogen; Yield trend simulation.