A Prognostic Score for Predicting Survival in Patients With Pancreatic Head Adenocarcinoma and Distal Cholangiocarcinoma

Abstract

Background/aim: Survival of patients with pancreatic cancer remains poor despite improvements in therapeutic strategies. This study aims to create a novel preoperative score to predict prognosis in patients with tumors of the pancreaticobiliary head.

Patients and methods: Data on 190 patients who underwent to pancreaticoduodenectomy at Sapienza University of Rome from January 2010 to December 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. After exclusion criteria, 101 patients were considered eligible for retrospective study. Preoperative biological, clinical and radiological parameters were considered.

Results: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma [hazard ratio (HR)=1.995, 95% confidence intervaI (CI)=1.1-3.3; p=0.01], carbohydrate antigen 19.9 (CA 19.9) >230 U/ml (HR=2.414, 95% CI=2.4-1.5, p<0.0001) and Wirsung duct diameter >3 mm (HR=1.592, 95% CI=1.5-0.9; p=0.08) were the only parameters associated with poor prognosis. Through these parameters, a prognostic score (PHT score) was developed which predicted worst survival when exceeding 2 and better survival when ≤2.

Conclusion: The PHT score may have a potential impact on predicting overall survival and consequently modulate the timing and type of treatment (up-front surgery vs. neoadjuvant therapy) patients are offered.

Keywords: Pancreatic cancer; borderline resectable pancreatic cancer; distal cholangiocarcinoma; pancreaticoduodenectomy; prognostic score; survival.