As of 21 April 2020, 176 ASF outbreaks have occurred in China. For each outbreak, an investigation was conducted, including historical data retrieval and traceability of potential contacts. The purpose of this study is to conduct a preliminary analysis of the data obtained from the outbreak investigations, including an investigation of the possible contributing factors of the spread of ASF in China. Based on the epidemic situation and the policies issued, the entire epidemic can be divided into three phases. 71 outbreaks were reported between 3 August 2018 and 17 November 2018; 44 outbreaks between 19 November 2018 and 30 March 2019; and 61 outbreaks between 4 April 2019 and 12 April 2020. Based on the reported outbreaks, the proportional rate of outbreaks in small farms (livestock ≤ 500, 127/168) is significantly higher than that of medium (501 ≤ livestock < 2,000, 14/168; 2001 ≤ livestock ≤ 5,000, 9/168) and large farms (livestock ≥ 5,001, 18/168). The odds of infection related to swill feeding (OR = 2.5, 95% CI, 1.5-4.3) and the mechanical dissemination of vehicles and personnel (OR = 2.7, 95% CI, 1.6-4.5) are significantly higher than those of pigs and pig production transportation. Swill feeding is the major contributing factor for small farms while mechanical dissemination of vehicles and personnel is the major contributing factor for large farms. The average duration from the beginning of the infection to the official outbreak report is gradually decreasing, which means that response speed of industry entities and the animal husbandry and veterinary departments from the beginning of the infection to the outbreak report is gradually increasing. Based on the analysis for ASF outbreaks, some policies and suggestions were put forward, such as improving the biosecurity level of the farms, as well as strengthening the supervision of breeding, transportation and slaughter.
Keywords: african swine fever; disease control; epidemic; prevention; veterinary epidemiology.
© 2021 Wiley-VCH GmbH.