Objective: We sought to develop a model to predict the risk of small intracranial aneurysm (SIA; ≤5 mm) rupture among Chinese adults and to compare the score predicted by our model with the PHASES (population, hypertension, age, size, earlier subarachnoid hemorrhage, aneurysm site) score.
Methods: From August 2011 to June 2015, 366 patients with 394 SIAs were retrospectively evaluated and followed up for ≥5 years. The clinical characteristics of the patients were reviewed from their medical records, and the SIA features were evaluated from the imaging studies. The independent risk factors for SIA rupture were studied using multiple Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. The diagnostic value of the PHASES score for the prediction of SIA rupture was also calculated.
Results: Six SIAs in 6 different patients had ruptured during a mean follow-up of 6.4 years. An irregular shape (odds ratio [OR], 31.464), a high aspect ratio (OR, 40.573), and a high size ratio (OR, 20.541) increased the risk of rupture. The predictive score incorporated these three factors. The threshold was 1.5, and the area under the curve, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.986, 100%, and 94.6%, respectively. For the PHASES score, the area under the curve, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.702, 83.3%, and 62.1%, respectively.
Conclusions: An irregular shape, a high aspect ratio, and a high size ratio were associated with SIA rupture in the Chinese population. Our predictive score is of great value in predicting the risk of SIA rupture.
Keywords: China; Intracranial aneurysms; Risk factors; Rupture; Subarachnoid hemorrhage.
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