The association between the pattern of change in N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and short-term outcomes in children undergoing surgery for congenital heart disease

Abstract

Objectives: This study aimed to determine whether changes in perioperative N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are associated with short-term outcomes in children undergoing surgery for congenital heart disease (CHD).

Methods: We retrospectively included 873 consecutive children with CHD after cardiac surgery. NT-proBNP concentrations were collected from each child prior to and at 1, 12, 36 and 72 h after surgery. The patients had postsurgical follow-ups at 30, 90 and 180 days. The end point was postoperative composite adverse events.

Results: The patients were classified into 3 groups using joint latent class mixture time-to-event models: (i) relatively stable (86.7%), (ii) decreasing (7.2%) and (iii) increasing (6.1%). In total, 257 (29.4%) adverse events occurred. The joint latent class mixture time-to-event models showed that increasing NT-proBNP was strongly associated with adverse events, with adjusted hazard ratio of 2.33 (95% confidence interval 1.52-3.60). Multinomial logistic regression showed that the variables associated with the pattern of change were age, weight at surgery, mode of delivery and cardiopulmonary bypass time.

Conclusions: The pattern of dynamic postsurgical changes in NT-proBNP may facilitate outcome stratification and identification of a high risk for adverse events.

Keywords: Adverse events; Children; Congenital heart disease; Joint latent class mixture time-to-event models; N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide.