With the rapid increase of reported COVID-19 cases, German policymakers announced a 4-week "shutdown light" starting on November 2, 2020. Applying mathematical models, possible scenarios for the evolution of the outbreak in Germany are simulated. The results indicate that independent of the effectiveness of the current restrictive measures they might not be sufficient to mitigate the outbreak. Repeated shutdown periods or permanently applied measures over the winter could be successful alternatives.
Keywords: COVID-19; epidemic outbreak; mathematical modeling; non-pharmaceutical interventions; wave breaker.
© 2020 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.