An analytical study of the factors that influence COVID-19 spread

Kawther Aabed; Maha M A Lashin

doi:10.1016/j.sjbs.2020.11.067

An analytical study of the factors that influence COVID-19 spread

Saudi J Biol Sci. 2021 Feb;28(2):1177-1195. doi: 10.1016/j.sjbs.2020.11.067. Epub 2020 Nov 26.

Authors

Kawther Aabed¹, Maha M A Lashin^{2

3}

Affiliations

¹ Biology Department, College of Science, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
² College of Engineering, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
³ Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering Shoubra, Banha University, Egypt.

Abstract

The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to constitute an international public health emergency. Seasonality is a long-recognized attribute of many viral infections of humans. Nevertheless, the relationship between environmental factors and the spread of infection, particularly for person-to-person communicable diseases, remains poorly understood. This study explores the relationship between environmental factors and the incidence of COVID-19 in 188 countries with reported COVID-19 cases as of April 13, 2020. Here we show that COVID-19 growth rates peaked in temperate zones in the Northern Hemisphere during the outbreak period, while they were lower in tropical zones. The relationships between COVID-19 and environmental factors were resistant to the potentially confounding effects of air pollution, sea level, and population. To prove the effect of those factors, study, and analysis of the prevalence of COVID-19 in Italy, Spain, and China was undertaken. A fuzzy logic system was designed to predict the effects of that variables on the rate of viral spread of COVID-19.

Keywords: Air pollution; Altitude; COVID-19; Case study – Fuzzy logic system; Environmental factors; Population density; Temperature.