Combined use of QRISK3 and SCORE as predictors of carotid plaques in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Abstract

Objective: Because carotid plaques predict the development of cardiovascular events in RA, we aimed to assess if the combined use of the systematic coronary risk evaluation (SCORE) and the QRISK3 algorithms allows for the identification of RA patients with carotid plaques in a defined population-based RA inception cohort.

Methods: A set of consecutive RA patients without a history of diabetes, chronic kidney disease or cardiovascular events were studied by carotid US between 2012 and 2019. Modified SCORE (mSCORE) for RA based on the 2015/2016 updated EULAR recommendations and QRISK3 algorithms were retrospectively tested using baseline data obtained at the time of the carotid US assessment.

Results: A total of 466 (54%) of 865 patients had carotid plaques. Using dichotomized QRISK3 and EULAR mSCORE, 73.2% (95% CI: 68.4.8, 77.6) of patients with QRISK ≥ 10% and EULAR mSCORE < 5% had plaque. In this group, the diagnostic odds ratio was 5.79 (95% CI: 4.14, 8.10). However, if both algorithms were above their thresholds of high cardiovascular risk (QRISK ≥ 10% and EULAR mSCORE ≥ 5%), the sensitivity increased up to 83.3% (95% CI: 72.1, 91.4) and the diagnostic odds ratio up to 10.6 (95% CI: 5.13, 22.0). When the risk charts scales were used as continuous variables, both QRISK3 and EULAR mSCORE were found positively associated with plaque. For each 1% QRISK3 or EULAR mSCORE increase, the probability of having plaques multiplied by 1.14 and 1.22, respectively. However, the effects of both algorithms did not multiply by each other.

Conclusions: . The combined use of QRISK3 and EULAR mSCORE allows for the identification of most RA patients at high risk of carotid plaques.

Keywords: QRISK3; RA; SCORE; cardiovascular disease; carotid plaques.