A calibrated measure to compare fluctuations of different entities across timescales

Sci Rep. 2020 Nov 26;10(1):20673. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-77660-4.

Abstract

A common way to learn about a system's properties is to analyze temporal fluctuations in associated variables. However, conclusions based on fluctuations from a single entity can be misleading when used without proper reference to other comparable entities or when examined only on one timescale. Here we introduce a method that uses predictions from a fluctuation scaling law as a benchmark for the observed standard deviations. Differences from the benchmark (residuals) are aggregated across multiple timescales using Principal Component Analysis to reduce data dimensionality. The first component score is a calibrated measure of fluctuations-the reactivity RA of a given entity. We apply our method to activity records from the media industry using data from the Event Registry news aggregator-over 32M articles on selected topics published by over 8000 news outlets. Our approach distinguishes between different news outlet reporting styles: high reactivity points to activity fluctuations larger than expected, reflecting a bursty reporting style, whereas low reactivity suggests a relatively stable reporting style. Combining our method with the political bias detector Media Bias/Fact Check we quantify the relative reporting styles for different topics of mainly US media sources grouped by political orientation. The results suggest that news outlets with a liberal bias tended to be the least reactive while conservative news outlets were the most reactive.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't