The puparium is the hardened exoskeleton of the last larval instar of a fly, inside which a prepupa, a pupa and a pharate adult fly successively develop. Empty puparia are frequently collected at death scenes, especially in cases with a long post mortem interval (PMI). Although we are not able to estimate the interval between the eclosion of an adult fly and the collection of an empty puparium (i.e. the post-eclosion interval (PEI)), empty puparia may still provide valuable evidence about the minimum PMI. However, because of the unknown PEI, it is impossible to determine the time when the fly emerged, and thus when the retrospective calculation of the minimum PMI should start. In this study, the estimation of PMI (or minimum PMI) for empty puparia of Protophormia terraenovae Rob.-Desv. (Calliphoridae) and Stearibia nigriceps Meig. (Piophilidae) was simulated, to gain insight into the changes in estimates, when different PEIs and different temperature conditions were assumed. The simulations showed that the PEI (in a range of 0-90 days) had no effect on the PMI (or minimum PMI) when the puparium was collected in winter or early spring (December-April). In late spring, summer, or autumn (May-November) the PMI (or minimum PMI) increased with the PEI. The increase in PMI was large in the summer months, and surprisingly small in the autumn months, frequently smaller than the PEI used in the estimation. The shortest PMI was always obtained with a PEI of 0, indicating that the true minimum PMI is always estimated using a PEI of 0. When the puparium was collected during spring, simulations indicated that oviposition had occurred in the previous year, while in summer the previous-year oviposition has been indicated by the simulations only when longer PEIs had been assumed. These findings should guide estimation of the PMI (or minimum PMI) based on an empty puparium.
Keywords: Empty puparium; Forensic entomology; Post-mortem interval; Simulation; Uncertainty.