Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in 190 countries from 23 January to 13 April 2020

Abstract

Background: To evaluate and compare the effectiveness of four types of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt) of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19).

Methods: This study included 1,908,197 confirmed COVID-19 cases from 190 countries between 23 January and 13 April 2020. The implemented NPIs were categorised into four types: mandatory face mask in public, isolation or quarantine, social distancing and traffic restriction (referred to as mandatory mask, quarantine, distancing and traffic hereafter, respectively).

Results: The implementations of mandatory mask, quarantine, distancing and traffic were associated with changes (95% confidence interval, CI) of -15.14% (from -21.79% to -7.93%), -11.40% (from -13.66% to -9.07%), -42.94% (from -44.24% to -41.60%) and -9.26% (from -11.46% to -7.01%) in the Rt of COVID-19 when compared with those without the implementation of the corresponding measures. Distancing and the simultaneous implementation of two or more types of NPIs seemed to be associated with a greater decrease in the Rt of COVID-19.

Conclusion: Our study indicates that NPIs can significantly contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Distancing and the simultaneous implementation of two or more NPIs should be the strategic priorities for containing COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Time-Varying effective reproduction number (Rt).