A preliminary computational surface oil spill trajectory model for ice-covered waters and its validation with two oil spill events: A field experiment in the Barents Sea and an accidental spill in the Gulf of Finland

Abstract

Trajectory estimation of an oil spill in ice-covered waters is essential for response planning and risk assessment. This paper presents the preliminary development of a new computational model for the estimation of spreading and surface transport of oil in the presence of ice. A new approach for the estimation of spreading in 0.8-0.95 ice concentration range is proposed. Additionally, for the first time the pumping of floating in‑leads oil onto or under ice floes with closing leads is modelled. The model is able to estimate the mobilization of under-ice oil and its potential subsequent surfacing and works as a stand-alone model with any rectangular-grid ice-ocean model. The model was used to simulate trajectories of two real-life spill events, a field experiment in the Barents Sea where oil and ice were observed to move together and an accidental spill in the Gulf of Finland. Model results were generally consistent with observations.

Keywords: Arctic oil spill response; Computational modelling; Oil in ice; Oil spill trajectory.