Prediction of sediment heavy metal at the Australian Bays using newly developed hybrid artificial intelligence models

Abstract

Hybrid artificial intelligence (AI) models are developed for sediment lead (Pb) prediction in two Bays (i.e., Bramble (BB) and Deception (DB)) stations, Australia. A feature selection (FS) algorithm called extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) is proposed to abstract the correlated input parameters for the Pb prediction and validated against principal component of analysis (PCA), recursive feature elimination (RFE), and the genetic algorithm (GA). XGBoost model is applied using a grid search strategy (Grid-XGBoost) for predicting Pb and validated against the commonly used AI models, artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). The input parameter selection approaches redimensioned the 21 parameters into 9-5 parameters without losing their learned information over the models' training phase. At the BB station, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values (0.06, 0.32, 0.34, and 0.33) were achieved for the XGBoost-SVM, XGBoost-ANN, XGBoost-Grid-XGBoost, and Grid-XGBoost models, respectively. At the DB station, the lowest MAPE values, 0.25 and 0.24, were attained for the XGBoost-Grid-XGBoost and Grid-XGBoost models, respectively. Overall, the proposed hybrid AI models provided a reliable and robust computer aid technology for sediment Pb prediction that contribute to the best knowledge of environmental pollution monitoring and assessment.

Keywords: Australian Bays; Feature selection; Heavy metal prediction; Hybridized intelligence models; Sediment lead (Pb).