On the temporal spreading of the SARS-CoV-2

PLoS One. 2020 Oct 29;15(10):e0240777. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0240777. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

The behaviour of SARS-CoV-2 virus is certainly one of the most challenging in contemporary world. Although the mathematical modelling of the virus has made relevant contributions, the unpredictable behaviour of the virus is still not fully understood. To identify some aspects of the virus elusive behaviour, we focused on the temporal characteristics of its course. We have analysed the latency trends the virus has realized worldwide, the outbreak of the hot spots, and the decreasing trends of the pandemic. We found that the spatio-temporal pandemic dynamics shows a complex behaviour. As with physical systems, these changes in the pandemic's course, which we have called transitional stages of contagion, highlight shared characteristics in many countries. The main results of this work is that the pandemic progression rhythms have been clearly identified for each country, providing the processes and the stages at which the virus develops, thus giving important information on the activation of containment and control measures.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Betacoronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission*
  • Global Health
  • Humans
  • Machine Learning
  • Pandemics
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / transmission*
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Spatio-Temporal Analysis*

Grants and funding

With regard to the ex 60% fund, indicated in the funding statement as “funds of the Physics Department of the University of Calabria”, we indicate that the funds are: For BE: 2016.RIC.BILO.ATE001 FRS, UNIVERSITY OF CALABRIA Modelling and Applications, University Projects. For PSP: 2016.RIC.PANT.ATE001 FRS UNIVERSITY OF CALABRIA, Modelling, University Projects. There was no additional external funding received for this study.