COVID-19 in Shanghai: IPC Policy Exploration in Support of Work Resumption Through System Dynamics Modeling

Jidi Zhao; Jianguo Jia; Ying Qian; Lumin Zhong; Jiancong Wang; Yuyang Cai

doi:10.2147/RMHP.S265992

COVID-19 in Shanghai: IPC Policy Exploration in Support of Work Resumption Through System Dynamics Modeling

Risk Manag Healthc Policy. 2020 Oct 8:13:1951-1963. doi: 10.2147/RMHP.S265992. eCollection 2020.

Authors

Jidi Zhao¹, Jianguo Jia², Ying Qian³, Lumin Zhong⁴, Jiancong Wang⁵, Yuyang Cai^{4

6}

Affiliations

¹ Faculty of Economics and Management, East China Normal University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
² System Dynamics Chapter, Systems Engineering Society of China, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
³ School of Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
⁴ School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
⁵ Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
⁶ China Institute for Urban Governance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.

Abstract

Purpose: It is unclear how and to what extent various infection prevention and control (IPC) policies affect the spread of an epidemic during work resumption. In order to assess the impact of IPC policies, this research addresses the results of a policy simulation in Shanghai, China, which estimates the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 under various IPC policies and offers evidence-based outcomes of work resumption policies for the world.

Materials and methods: This simulation research is based on a system dynamics (SD) model that integrates IPC work resumption policies implemented in Shanghai into the classical susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) epidemiological model. Input data were obtained from official websites, the Baidu migration index and published literature. The SD model was validated by comparing results with real-world data.

Results: The simulations show that a non-quarantined and non-staged approach to work resumption (Policy 1) would bring a small secondary outbreak of COVID-19. The quarantined but non-staged approach (Policy 2) and the non-quarantined but staged approach (Policy 3) would not bring a secondary outbreak of COVID-19. However, they both would generate more newly confirmed cases than the staged and quarantined approach (Policy 4). Moreover, the 14-day quarantine policy alone appears to be more effective in reducing transmission risk than the staged work resumption policy alone. The combined staged and quarantined IPC policy led to the fewest confirmed cases caused by work resumption in Shanghai, and the spread of COVID-19 stopped (ie, the number of newly confirmed cases reduced to zero) at the earliest date.

Conclusion: Conservative IPC policies can prevent a second outbreak of COVID-19 during work resumption. The dynamic systems model designed in this study can serve as a tool to test various IPC work resumption policies, facilitating decision-making in responses to combating the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; IPC policies; SEIR; system dynamics; work resumption.

Grants and funding

This work was supported by National Social Science Foundation of China (No. 18BGL235 and No. 20AZD059), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 20VYJ064 and No. 71432006), and Shanghai Jiao Tong University think tank leading research project (No. ZKYJ-2020014).