Type 2 diabetes poses a major public health challenge. Here, we conducted a cohort study with a large sample size to determine the association of baseline serum ferritin (SF), a marker of iron status, with incident type 2 diabetes in primary healthcare patients in Catalonia, a western Mediterranean region. A total of 206,115 patients aged 35-75 years without diabetes and with available baseline SF measurements were eligible. The variables analyzed included sociodemographic characteristics, anthropometry, lifestyle, morbidity and iron status (SF, serum iron and hemoglobin). Incident type 2 diabetes during follow-up (2006-2016) was ascertained using the International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition. Cox proportional-hazards models adjusted for multiple baseline confounders/mediators were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). Over a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 12,371 new cases of type 2 diabetes were diagnosed, representing an incidence rate of 7.5 cases/1000 persons/year. Since at baseline, the median SF concentration was higher in subjects who developed type 2 diabetes (107.0 µg/L vs. 60.3 µg/L; p < 0.001), SF was considered an independent risk predictor for type 2 diabetes; the multivariable-adjusted HRs for incident type 2 diabetes across SF quartiles 1-4 were 1.00 (reference), 0.95 (95% CI = 0.85-1.06), 1.18 (95% CI = 1.65-1.31) and 1.51 (95% CI = 1.36-1.65), respectively. Our study suggested that higher baseline SF was significantly associated with an increased risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes in Catalan primary healthcare users, supporting the relevance of monitoring iron stores in order to improve the diagnosis and management of diabetes in clinical practice.
Keywords: iron status; primary healthcare; serum ferritin; type 2 diabetes; type 2 diabetes incidence.