Background: This study proposes a prediction model for the automatic assessment of lung cancer risk based on an artificial neural network (ANN) with a data-driven approach to the low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) standardized structure report.
Methods: This comparative validation study analysed a prospective cohort from Chiayi Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taiwan. In total, 836 asymptomatic patients who had undergone LDCT scans between February 2017 and August 2018 were included, comprising 27 lung cancer cases and 809 controls. A derivation cohort of 602 participants (19 lung cancer cases and 583 controls) was collected to construct the ANN prediction model. A comparative validation of the ANN and Lung-RADS was conducted with a prospective cohort of 234 participants (8 lung cancer cases and 226 controls). The areas under the curves (AUCs) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the prediction models.
Results: At the cut-off of category 3, the Lung-RADS had a sensitivity of 12.5%, specificity of 96.0%, positive predictive value of 10.0%, and negative predictive value of 96.9%. At its optimal cut-off value, the ANN had a sensitivity of 75.0%, specificity of 85.0%, positive predictive value of 15.0%, and negative predictive value of 99.0%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.764 for the Lung-RADS and 0.873 for the ANN (P = 0.01). The two most important predictors used by the ANN for predicting lung cancer were the documented sizes of partially solid nodules and ground-glass nodules.
Conclusions: Compared to the Lung-RADS, the ANN provided better sensitivity for the detection of lung cancer in an Asian population. In addition, the ANN provided a more refined discriminative ability than the Lung-RADS for lung cancer risk stratification with population-specific demographic characteristics. When lung nodules are detected and documented in a standardized structured report, ANNs may better provide important insights for lung cancer prediction than conventional rule-based criteria.
Keywords: Data visualization; Early detection of cancer; Machine learning; Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves; Sensitivity and specificity.