Study of global dynamics of COVID-19 via a new mathematical model

Rahim Ud Din; Aly R Seadawy; Kamal Shah; Aman Ullah; Dumitru Baleanu

doi:10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103468

Study of global dynamics of COVID-19 via a new mathematical model

Results Phys. 2020 Dec:19:103468. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103468. Epub 2020 Oct 15.

Authors

Rahim Ud Din¹, Aly R Seadawy², Kamal Shah¹, Aman Ullah¹, Dumitru Baleanu^{3

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Affiliations

¹ Department of Mathematics, University of Malakand, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.
² Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Taibah University, Medina, Saudi Arabia.
³ Department of Mathematics, Cankaya University, Ankara, Turkey.
⁴ Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan.
⁵ Institute of Space Sciences, 077125 Magurele, Romania.

Abstract

The theme of this paper focuses on the mathematical modeling and transmission mechanism of the new Coronavirus shortly noted as (COVID-19), endangering the lives of people and causing a great menace to the world recently. We used a new type epidemic model composed on four compartments that is susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered (SEIR), which describes the dynamics of COVID-19 under convex incidence rate. We simulate the results by using nonstandard finite difference method (NSFDS) which is a powerful numerical tool. We describe the new model on some random data and then by the available data of a particular regions of Subcontinents.

Keywords: Basic reproduction number; COVID-19; Convex incidence rate; Disease-free equilibrium; Mathematical modeling; Stability.