Identification of exacerbation risk in patients with liver dysfunction using machine learning algorithms

PLoS One. 2020 Oct 9;15(10):e0239266. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239266. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

The prediction of the liver failure (LF) and its proper diagnosis would lead to a reduction in the complications of the disease and prevents the progress of the disease. To improve the treatment of LF patients and reduce the cost of treatment, we build a machine learning model to forecast whether a patient would deteriorate after admission to the hospital. First, a total of 348 LF patients were included from May 2011 to March 2018 retrospectively in this study. Then, 15 key clinical indicators are selected as the input of the machine learning algorithm. Finally, machine learning and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) are used to forecast the LF deterioration. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) of MELD, GLMs, CART, SVM and NNET with 10 fold-cross validation was 0.670, 0.554, 0.794, 0.853 and 0.912 respectively. Additionally, the accuracy of MELD, GLMs, CART, SVM and NNET was 0.669, 0.456, 0.794, 0.853 and 0.912. The predictive performance of the developed machine model execept the GLMs exceeds the classic MELD model. The machine learning method could support the physicians to trigger the initiation of timely treatment for the LD patients.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Area Under Curve
  • Bilirubin / blood
  • Creatine / blood
  • Female
  • Humans
  • International Normalized Ratio
  • Liver Failure / physiopathology*
  • Machine Learning*
  • Male
  • ROC Curve
  • Risk Factors

Substances

  • Creatine
  • Bilirubin

Grants and funding

This work was supported by Sun Yat-sen University, China, under Scientific Initiation Project No.67000-18821109 for High-level Experts. No competing financial interests exist.